Routed Maoists still hold the key to the future of the Nepal: analysts

Campaigns (left) Nabindra Raj Joshi Chief Nepali Congress in Kathmandu, November 12, 2013
© AFP/file Prakash Mathema

Kathmandu - surveys after the second war of the Nepal were unexpectedly peaceful and decisive, but the chances of an elusive agreement on a constitution now depends on how former rebel Maoists respond to their constituency mauling, analysts say.

While the agitation in preparation for the election November 19 had raised fears of a low turn-out, 78% of the registered voters cast their ballots in a contest, which received a certificate of good health from foreign observers.

The main losers were the Maoists, winners of the first ballot after the war in 2008, after King Gyanendra was overthrown, but this time trailed third behind the Marxist-Leninist, Nepali Congress unified (UML) parties.

When the magnitude of their defeat first appeared, the Maoists cried foul and demanded a stoppage of counting of votes.

But while the party is still licking its wounds, its leaders have since indicated that they were ready to take their seats in the constituent assembly whose main task is to agree on a new constitution.

Analysts say that the results highlight disillusionment among voters after watching a series of short-lived Governments, primarily led by the Maoists, struggling to capitalise on a return to peace in the past five years.

A supporter of the Nepali Congress celebrated the result of the elections outside a polling centre in Kathmandu, November 22, 2013
© AFP/file Prakash Mathema

"Voters clearly wanted express their frustration and disappointment with the Maoists and give a chance to others, instead," said Guna Raj Luitel, editor in Chief of The Annapurna Post.

"They really want stability after seeing so many Governments come and go in recent years," Luitel told AFP.

Since the first Constituent Assembly collapsed last year after the parties could not agree on the text of a new constitution, economic growth fell to 4.6 per cent before rallying a bit lower.

Inflation remains in the two digits, forcing hundreds of thousands of Nepalese destitute to migrate the overseas of jobs.

The wrangling over the constitution came in the context of regular strikes called by political parties.

But despite their electoral defeat, S.D. Muni, Professor Institute of studies in South Asia in Singapore, said that the Maoists remains key to reach a consensus on the constitution.

'It will be very difficult to move forward and to draft a constitution without the participation of the Maoists', provided to AFP.

"Everyone needs to adapt the political right now, process the case, we are in for more trouble. ''

The former rebels to lay down their arms in 2006 after signing a peace agreement that has transformed the Nepal into a secular Republic.

But since their victory in the landmark 2008 elections, the Maoists have tarnished by regular reports on their lavish lifestyles, in stark contrast to their ideals revolutionary.

Maoist candidates including former Premiers Pushpa Kamal Dahal (also known as Prachanda) and Baburam Bhattarai, both lost their seats in the elections of the constituent Assembly of November.

While the Maoists won only 80 of 575 seats at stake, the traditional Nepali Congress won 196 while the UML got 175.

The Nepali Congress has urged the Maoists to join a power-sharing Government, but warned they will still go forward and conclude an agreement with the UML, if former rebels do not want to engage with them.

While the party has yet to make clear its position, the commentator and former Maoist senior Mumaram Khanal considers that they would participate in the constituent Assembly.

"This is a negotiation tactic," Khanal told AFP.

Chief of the Nepali Congress K.C Fox (R) celebrates his victory in national elections with supporters in Kathmandu on November 21, 2013
© AFP Prakash Mathema

"The Maoists are negotiating to ensure they are getting an important voice in the Assembly, beyond their mandate."

The Maoists should take a final decision on the question of whether they will join the Assembly Tuesday, the deadline for parties to present a list of legislators.

Sources in various parts indicate that the main demand of the Maoists, it is that the constitution must be accepted by all parties and not just by a majority of two-thirds of the members of the Assembly.

Efforts to reach consensus have already hung on the distribution of powers between the Government and the Parliament and provincial boundaries.

But Khanal said that a boycott of the political process is not an option, after they called for an end to their 'people's revolution '.

"The only way for the Maoists to ensure they are heard is to join the Assembly, Khanal said."

"If they walk instead of this, they will have no political future".

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